A Multi-Model, Multi-Scale Research Program in Stressors, Responses, and Coupled Systems Dynamics at the Energy-Water-Land Nexus

A Multi-Model, Multi-Scale Research Program in Stressors, Responses, and Coupled Systems Dynamics at the Energy-Water-Land Nexus

John Weyant, Stanford University (Principal Investigator)

Stanford Investigators: Noah Diffenbaugh, David Lobell

Pennsylvania State University Investigators:

Karen Fisher-Vanden, Christopher Forest, Murali Haran Klaus Keller, Robert Nicholas, Jim Shortle, Mort Webster, Doug Wrenn

Purdue University: Thomas Hertel

Boston University: Ian Sue Wing

University of New Hampshire: Steve Frolking, Richard Lammers, Alex Prusevich

Cornell University: Patrick Reed

National Bureau of Economic Research: Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia University)



OBJECTIVES



The goal of this research program is to build a next generation integrated suite of science-driven modeling and analytic capabilities, and a more expanded and connected community of practice, for analyses of the stressors, impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of global and regional change, with emphasis in understanding the Energy-Water-Land Nexus and interdependent infrastructures. Although the scope spans many complex facets of data, modeling, and analysis, as well as scales appropriate for integrated impacts and adaptation research, a particular focus of this effort is the development of multi-model, multi-scale capabilities spanning the domain of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs); Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) models; and Earth System Models

earth system model (ESM)

A model that simulates how chemistry, biology, and physical forces work together. These models are similar to, but much more comprehensive than, global climate models.

Source: U.S. Department of Energy Source

(ESMs).



PROJECT DESCRIPTION



The new capabilities and interactions outlined in this proposal will be achieved by:



I. Developing a use-inspired, innovative and adaptive framework for multi-model multi-scale research and analysis of integrated impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (I-IAV).



II. Building foundational, modeling integration methods and capabilities with the development of coupling software, emulators, advanced computational and statistical methods, and translational tools.



III. Assessing and establishing best modeling practices, and developing and testing framework evaluation tools, via methods comparisons, diagnostics, and integrated uncertainty analyses.

IV. Creating a better organized multi-sectoral/multi-regional/multi-model community of practice by promoting systematic engagement between the IAM, IAV, and ESM communities, advancing team-based methodological developments and integrated modeling experiments in I-IAV research.



BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE



The need for integrative climate science has increased dramatically over the last two decades, responding to rapid changes occurring at regional scales the urgent needs for improved understanding of the complex dynamics among human and Earth systems and, more specifically, the implications for impacts, adaptations, vulnerabilities, and feedbacks. In such critical areas as the energy-water-nexus and for connected, concentrated infrastructures, newly created integrative modeling frameworks will enable improved fundamental understanding of processes, tipping points, and potential long-term implications of various systems co-evolutionary pathways/options. The work must proceed in a way that makes its results as transparent and credible as possible and the science-based toolsets broadly accessible to other research disciplines, analysis, and decision-support communities.