Skip to Content

Coupling model intercomparison with synthesized experimental data across time and space to constrain carbon dynamics and biogeochemical cycling in permafrost ecosystems

Active Dates 8/15/2021-8/14/2024
Program Area Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling
Project Description
Surface air temperatures in the Arctic are increasing every year with widespread consequences for ecosystems and Arctic communities. The thawing and degradation of permafrost, perennially frozen ground, is projected to occur over this century exposing large quantities of frozen carbon to warmer temperatures and microbial degradation. Increased microbial activity is projected to release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere accelerating the rate of global climate change. Earth System Models need to accurately represent these permafrost carbon dynamics to project the magnitude and timing of permafrost carbon emissions into the future. The complexity of Earth System models requires innovative approaches to evaluate and analyze model results.

Here, we will synthesize data from pan-Arctic experimental warming studies and create new functional benchmarks for models. These benchmarks will be used to evaluate model performance from simulations that align with experimental perturbations (such as soil warming). We will perform model simulations with a suite of Earth System Models at the site-level and with a smaller subset of models at the pan-Arctic scale. Model performance will be evaluated against the synthesized experimental data to assess predictive capability among land models. In addition, results from model simulations will be used to define recommended future changes in model structure and parameterization that will be necessary to represent carbon dynamics for this region. We will also evaluate the temporal and spatial frequency of measured data with Earth System Model performance to guide future observational sampling.

The proposed work will be facilitated by a series of virtual meetings and in-person workshops that are organized in conjunction with the Permafrost Carbon Network. Community engagement will be an integral aspect of the proposed work as we will leverage the science community to actively participate and contribute data and model resources throughout the project. Our proposed activities will bring together modelers with experimentalists who work with Arctic permafrost warming experiments. Collectively, synthesizing experimental data and evaluating model simulations will improve understanding of the permafrost carbon feedback and implications for future climate change.
Award Recipient(s)
  • Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff (PI: Schaedel, Christina)